This wasn’t supposed to be a huge year on the coaching carousel unlike last year’s wild ride. But at just the midway point of the season, the sport has already had a ton of activity with Nebraska, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, Colorado and Arizona State all firing coaches. There are a few other coaches who are also sitting on a really, really hot seat. Expect more coaching turnover to happen this month and to carry over to the end of the 2022 season.
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Here’s The Athletic’s latest assessment after talks with numerous industry sources about the FBS coaching landscape.
AAC
Philip Montgomery, Tulsa: It’s Year 8 for Montgomery and he’s had only three winning seasons. His career record is 40-50. He’s done a pretty solid job overall and closed last season with a four-game winning streak to finish 7-6 and stick around for another season. The school handed him a two-year extension through 2024 right before its season finale. This year, though, things started very shakily with a loss at Wyoming, and Tulsa is just 2-4. Aside from a win over FCS Jacksonville State, the Golden Hurricane won a close one against a struggling NIU squad and against FCS Jacksonville State before losing three in a row, including a 32-point blowout loss against Navy. Going 4-2 in the second half isn’t unrealistic; of Tulsa’s remaining opponents, only Memphis and Tulane have winning records. The school didn’t want a change last year, and barring the bottom dropping out over the next two months, it probably won’t now, either. But this is one to monitor. Temperature check: Kind of warm.
Jeff Scott, USF: USF has tried to be patient with the former Clemson assistant after his dismal first two seasons, in which his team went 3-18 overall and 1-14 in AAC play. This season hasn’t gone much better — on paper, at least. The Bulls are 1-6. The kind of good news for Scott is that USF almost won at Cincinnati last week and played Florida close, losing by only three in Gainesville. The defense has to get better if things are going to improve. Games at Temple, at Tulsa and against SMU appear to be the Bulls’ best hopes to get to four wins. Short of that, it might be a tough sell to expect more patience from the USF brass. Temperature check: Getting warmer.
Ryan Silverfield, Memphis:The former O-line coach was a hot commodity before getting the Memphis job. Silverfield was a key piece in this program’s rise. He had a solid first two seasons considering his tenure began in the pandemic, going 8-3 and then 6-6. This year his team got off to a good start, opening 4-1, and had a big lead at home against Houston before the Cougars had a wild comeback in the last two minutes. That was followed by a 47-45 overtime loss at ECU to drop Memphis to 4-3 with Tulane and UCF, a combined 12-2, up next. There is already a lot of chirping locally about Silverfield’s stability. We think Silverfield should be safe barring a terrible second half of the season, but for a program that had six consecutive seasons of eight wins or better before he took over, and just getting bowl eligible doesn’t mean what it used to. Temperature check: Getting warmer.
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ACC
Scott Satterfield, Louisville:This one has taken quite a turn since his first season, when he did a terrific job rallying both the locker room and the fan base in the wake of the dreadful tone of the Bobby Petrino era. Satterfield had won big at his previous job, Appalachian State, where he won 40 games in his final four years, then he sparked the Cardinals from two wins to eight in his debut season. However, when his name was in the mix for the South Carolina job, some Louisville power brokers were really irked. Since that first season, he’s had consecutive losing years and is 3-3 so far this season.
The good news: He’s putting together potentially the best recruiting class in school history. The not-good news: After Louisville lost to struggling Boston College, his seat got a lot hotter. Winning last week at Virginia for the Cardinals’ first ACC victory, and doing it without star quarterback Malik Cunningham, helped, but the pressure will remain for the rest of the season. We hear his athletic director is still in his corner, but some influential people around the program are not. This feels like a steep hill to climb considering that after Louisville plays Pitt, the remaining five games are all against teams that have been ranked: Wake Forest, James Madison, at Clemson, NC State and at Kentucky. Temperature check: Pretty hot.
Big 12
Neal Brown, West Virginia: With the dramatic improvement that has taken place at Kansas, there really are no pushovers in the Big 12 anymore. The Mountaineers, though, appeared to be the worst team in the league, opening 0-2, although they did thump Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Va. But a few days ago, on another Thursday night national stage, West Virginia beat defending league champion Baylor, making key plays on offense and defense. It was a performance that should quiet whatever chatter has bubbled up this season about the Brown’s stability.
Brown took over a tricky situation after Dana Holgorsen left. A lot of talent left the program that year, too. Brown had done an amazing job at Troy, going 31-8 in his final three seasons of what was a big rebuild. He went 17-18 in his first three seasons in Morgantown. We hear he still has support from WVU leadership. He also has a huge $16 million buyout. Barring an abysmal second half, we think West Virginia will give him more time. Temperature check: Lukewarm.
C-USA
Will Healy, Charlotte:He arrived with much fanfare as a sort of wunderkind for the outstanding job he did at Austin Peay. The 37-year-old Healy had a nice start with the 49ers, going 7-6 and getting them their first winning season and bowl appearance. Since then, things have declined. The 49ers went 9-11 the next two seasons and have taken a big turn for the worse so far this year, opening 1-6, including a loss by 30 to FAU and a 17-point loss to FCS William & Mary. We hear Healy still has the support of the right people around the program, and the remainder of the schedule isn’t a gauntlet. Getting to three wins isn’t unrealistic, but after the start this team had, it would really help if the nation’s worst defense started to show some signs of life. Temperature check: Getting warmer.
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MAC
Scot Loeffler, Bowling Green: Three of his four predecessors had double-digit-winning seasons at Bowling Green, and the fifth coach before that run was Urban Meyer, who went 17-6 in two years there. This has been no coaching graveyard. The former Michigan quarterback, though, has really struggled to get any traction in the MAC in his four years, going 7-22 in his first three seasons and 4-17 in league play. This year hasn’t started out much better. The Falcons are 3-4 and lost to FCS Eastern Kentucky, to which they gave up 59 points. They did beat Marshall, but a few weeks later lost by 31 to Buffalo.It’s hard to imagine Loeffler will get more time if the Falcons don’t go on a big roll in the second half of the season. Temperature check: Hot.
Tim Lester, Western Michigan: Lester, a former star quarterback here, is in his sixth season and prior to this year, he’s not had a losing one. He’s also coming off an eight-win season. But WMU is only 2-5 and its closest loss was by 19 points. Lester also has a new athletic director, which may complicate his situation a little more. AD Dan Bartholomae gave him a contract extension through 2025 last winter shortly after taking over. His buyout is $500,000. We suspect he can afford one dud season here before any major moves. Temperature check: Lukewarm.
MWC
Danny Gonzales, New Mexico: Everyone knows this is a very tough job, and Gonzales is a favorite son, having grown up in Albuquerque and played at UNM before coaching there as an assistant. This is only his third season, and he did take over at the start of the pandemic. Still, he is only 7-19 overall and just 3-15 in league play and is coming off a 21-9 loss at New Mexico State. Not great, but this is a place where even getting to five wins is a major accomplishment since it’s happened only once since 2007. Temperature check: Lukewarm.
SEC
Bryan Harsin, Auburn: This was such a bad fit from the start. The money people didn’t want him. His AD pushed for Harsin, then the AD was pushed out. The power brokers have left Harsin twisting in the wind, and not surprisingly recruiting has really suffered, with the Tigers having the lowest-ranked class in the SEC. He entered the season on the hottest seat in the country, with the possible exception of Nebraska’s Scott Frost. His team has done little to cool things down, getting blown out at home by Penn State and squandering a double-digit lead to LSU, but at least the Tigers kept battling against No. 9 Ole Miss. That was a positive to show the team hasn’t quit on Harsin.
Still, the Tigers are just 1-8 in their past nine games against Power 5 opponents. It feels like a long shot that Harsin will be the head coach for too long after the school hires its new AD. Auburn will owe Harsin around $15.3 million if it lets him go this year and would have to pay 50 percent of that within 60 days. We hear that the new school president, who has an engineering background, is very process-driven, and he’s already probably been more patient than many Tigers fans would’ve hoped. Temperature check: Scalding.
Sun Belt
Jake Spavital, Texas State:His AD knows how behind this program was on many fronts when he hired Spavital. He won only five games in his first two seasons before improving a little to 4-8 last year. This season has begun better, with a double-digit win over Appalachian State before a three-point loss to a strong Troy team to fall to 3-4. Getting to six wins looks very possible. Temperature check: Warm.
Editor’s note:This story is part of the 2022 edition of theSecrets of the Coaching Carouselseries, which explores unique aspects of college football coaching changes and more.
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos: Maddie Malhotra, Michael Chang / Getty Images)
Bruce Feldman is the National College Football Insider for The Athletic. One of the sport’s leading voices, he also is a sideline reporter for FOX College Football. Bruce has covered college football nationally for more than 20 years and is the author of numerous books on the topic, including "Swing Your Sword: Leading The Charge in Football and Life" with Mike Leach and most recently "The QB: The Making of Modern Quarterbacks." Follow Bruce on Twitter @BruceFeldmanCFB
