College football Hope-O-Meter: How optimistic are fans feeling in 2023? (2024)

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From a broad perspective, you can make the argument for why college football fans might be a little more down than usual at the start of a new season.

The sport is undergoing seismic changes. The Pac-12 is falling apart amid conference realignment. Name, image and likeness collectives are two years into establishing themselves as a payroll system for players, recruits and transfers with little meaningful oversight or legislation from the NCAA. And many less prestigious programs are losing their best players to the transfer portal.

Yet there’s something resilient about college football fans. Even many Iowa State fans are still betting the Cyclones have a good season (OK, that was uncalled for).

That brings us to this year’s results from our Hope-O-Meter survey, in which fans from 58 of the 69 Power 5 schools had more than 50 percent of respondents claim to be “optimistic and hopeful” about the 2023 season. A year ago, four fan bases — Cincinnati, Miami, Ohio State and USC — expressed zero pessimism. This year, there are nine Power 5 teams fan bases completely full of hope.

What is driving optimism?

So, what were the most commonly used words or phrases college football fans typed to describe why they were optimistic or pessimistic about their favorite teams? And which fan bases used them the most?

I did a keyword search when combing through the nearly 6,000 responses to our survey. This is what I found:

• Realignment came up 42 times and was referenced mostly by fans of future ex-Pac-12 and current Big Ten schools.

• Recruiting was brought up 259 times and was used most by Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma and Michigan State fans.

• The quarterback position was discussed 616 times. It was a big topic for Notre Dame, Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State fans, and a fairly hot one for fans of Michigan, Minnesota, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Kentucky and Pitt.

• The transfer portal came up 207 times and was a big topic for Iowa and Oklahoma State fans.

• Coordinators were brought up 79 times, by Missouri, Alabama and Clemson fans in particular.

• Lastly, the phrase national championship came up 76 times in our search, and nobody used it more than Michigan fans.

Confidence is brimming

So, which fan bases are walking around completely satisfied with the direction of their favorite team and without an ounce of fear? Naturally, those who were pleasantly surprised by what happened last year.

Let’s start with Duke, whose fan base had no hope at all in last year’s survey before Mike Elko went 9-4 and won the ACC Coach of the Year award with Riley Leonard orchestrating it all at quarterback. Now, Duke is one of nine Power 5 fan bases in our survey without an ounce of pessimism.

The best part? Fans like Bobby Ferguson are proof you can be excited about your team and not cross over into a state of delusion:

“Duke will be a MUCH better team this year even if the record doesn’t show it. Opening with a sold out Wally Wade (Stadium) versus (defending ACC champion) Clemson on Monday night will be an amazing way to kick the season off. I am ready to head to a mid-tier bowl again!”

Kansas is another basketball school whose fan base is dripping with football optimism because they love their head coach (Lance Leipold) and quarterback (Jalon Daniels). And yet, still, they haven’t developed a state of mistaken identity (for the most part). Jayhawks fans know the challenges in Lawrence and respect oddsmakers’ over/under line of 5.5 wins. Take Gavin’s perspective, for example:

“To be clear, for fans of Kansas football, ‘optimism’ is relative and on a sliding scale. No, I don’t think we will shock the world. Nor do I think we will win the league. I don’t even know that we will get to a bowl game again. But I am confident that we FINALLY have the right coach in place and that good things are on the horizon. I think we will win 4-5 games this season and I will be absolutely delighted with that because I think this team will still be fun to watch.”

That doesn’t mean we don’t have some big-time dreamers.

Washington, unlike Duke and Kansas, has tasted a fair amount of glory in football. The Huskies won the national title in 1991 and made the College Football Playoff in 2016. Kalen DeBoer’s 11-2 debut season as head coach and the emergence of Michael Penix Jr. as a Heisman Trophy contender have folks in Seattle thinking this could be another magical year in the final season in the Pac-12 before joining the Big Ten. There’s “BIG PENIX ENERGY!” in the Evergreen State, according to Washington fans David and Bryan.

Zack Jenkins is brimming with so much Huskies confidence that he’s making strong declarations:

“Washington will win the Pac-12 in its last year of existence and make the Playoff (before getting trounced by Georgia), and Michael Penix Jr. will win the Heisman over Caleb Williams.”

It doesn’t matter if USC has Williams back and is the favorite to knock off two-time defending Pac-12 champion Utah and make the Playoff. There’s a similar level of confidence emanating from Eugene after Dan Lanning went 10-3 in his first year at Oregon and has Bo Nix returning at quarterback. Hunter from San Diego is totally bought in because Lanning said he’s bought in.

“Dan Lanning is in for the long-haul with his contract extension and he’s putting his recruiting chops to work. A healthy Bo Nix, ridiculous weapons on offense and a more well-rounded defense with another year playing in the system has me with high hopes for a NY6 berth at minimum.”

Josh Heupel is entering his third season at Tennessee, and it’s clear he’s changed the narrative. When he arrived in 2021, Volunteers fans’ confidence and optimism sat at 46 percent. Their Hope-O-Meter is at 100 percent now, even with Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt gone and two-time defending national champion Georgia still in the division.

“This is the first time in almost 20 years I have felt confident going into a season,” Vols fan Nick wrote. “Josh Heupel has been nothing short of a miracle worker.”

Biggest risers

So which fan bases are not completely bought in but are more hopeful than they were a year ago? Unsurprisingly, four of the top five Power 5 programs whose fans took a leap in optimism hired new coaches at the end of last season: Colorado, Georgia Tech, Arizona State and Auburn.

“No one knows how the Coach Prime experiment will play out, but the man is a winner, and he has a good quarterback,” writes Buffaloes fan Stuart W. “If CU can avoid injuries at quarterback and along both lines, Coach Prime and his Buffs will still be in the hunt for a bowl bid come November. The over/under of 3.5 wins seems low.”

In Atlanta, where Georgia Tech alumnus Brent Key takes over a program that hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2018, few are expecting a quick turnaround. But there’s still joy and optimism.

“We finally got rid of Geoff Collins and have someone who knows Tech and has a plan,” Yellow Jackets fan Cody writes. “Brent Key will hopefully pull Tech out of the abyss of the past few years and put us in a position to be attractive in realignment in the coming years.”

Mooner, an Arizona State fan, believes in Sun Devils coach Kenny Dillingham, a 2012 Arizona State grad and Phoenix native, because he said Dillingham doesn’t view ASU as “a stepping stone.”

“Whatever Dillingham builds in Tempe has to be better than the Herm Edwards era of zero urgency,” writes Nick S.

Auburn’s Hugh Freeze got himself in some hot water the last time he coached in the SEC at Ole Miss. But Auburn fans are willing to look past all that if Freeze can get the Tigers to beat Alabama again. He’s flipped the roster and has put together a stellar 2024 recruiting class.

“Even if both parties have their warts, (Freeze) knows where the money is and how to play nice with his boosters, his fan base and his institution,” an anonymous Tigers fan wrote. “It feels like we have alignment for the first time in ages. He also wants to recruit and recruit against Alabama and Georgia. It’s basically a complete 180 from Bryan Harsin’s tenure. I’m also encouraged by the Philip Montgomery hire (as offensive coordinator) and with Payton Thorne bringing competent, if not spectacular QB play, to the team.”

Who else were the biggest risers in terms of optimism? Fans from Vanderbilt (55 percentage points), Penn State (35.7), Florida State (30.9), Nebraska (30.4), Illinois (29.7), Wisconsin (25.5), Syracuse (21.5), TCU (16) and Texas (13.9).

Biggest fallers

On the flip side, the confidence and optimism of fans has been shaken the most at Virginia, Michigan State, Boston College, West Virginia, Cincinnati and Florida.

It’s wild to see how much confidence has slipped at Cincinnati, which has won 53 games over the past five years and is joining the Big 12. But it lost coach Luke Fickell to Wisconsin, replacing him with Scott Satterfield, and optimism has been cut in half.

“The Bearcats are only a few years removed from the highest height the program has ever achieved,” wrote Derek K. “I fear that this has created unrealistic expectations among many in the fan base (myself included, perhaps). Combine this with a tougher week-to-week schedule, the departure of a great coach (and subsequent roster turnover) and an uninspiring new coach, and this could be a long season.”

Remember two years ago when Mel Tucker went 11-2, led Michigan State to a Peach Bowl win and signed that big contract? There are a few Spartans fans jumping ship already.

“Tuck Comin’. Croots Goin’,” writes Stiv. “Rival is back up to full strength after many years down. I could honestly see Michigan State handing in a 5-7 season, falling back in the Big Ten pack right as four more schools expand the conference. What once was a dominant team becomes another Indiana or Purdue. Sorry Hoosiers and Boilermakers, but you know what I mean.”

Other fan bases feeling significantly less optimistic compared to last year: Cal, Miami, Texas A&M, Minnesota, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest.

Other highlights from the Hope-O-Meter comment section

(Comments lightly edited for length and clarity.)

• Jack Selman, hopeful Alabama fan: “People are SEVERELY doubting us, and I love it. I believe.”

• Matt, hopeful Arizona fan: “I’m optimistic that this team can get to a bowl game this year. That’s the next step for Jedd Fisch. But I’m absolutely gutted that Arizona will forever be known as the school that never got to the Rose Bowl. Thanks, realignment.”

• Jonathan T., hopeful Arkansas fan: “We’re Arkansas. We don’t have national title hopes. We’ve lost to Bama since 2006. I was 11 years old. Give us eight wins and that’s a great year. Give us 10 and it’ll be one of our best seasons in the past quarter-century (especially if it doesn’t end with our coach in a neck brace and a resignation).”

• James, hopeful Baylor fan: “We are wildly slept on. We are sitting on an easy seven wins. Coach Dave Aranda says this is the best team he’s had so far in his tenure. When we beat Utah, 9-3 should be a lock. Also, having eight home games helps.”

• Stephen Hales, hopeless Boise State fan: “Boise State has been left out for 20 years and it’s looking like they will continue to be left out. It’s not so much about this season — I think we’ll be decent — it’s more having to do with realignment. It’s hard to be hopeful when the system is essentially built to take away our opportunity.”

• Adam, hopeless Boston College fan: “I mean, it’s BC. Is there ever any reason to believe we’ll be something other than 6-6 or 7-5? This is BC, for 15 years now: Our helmets are gold, half our tickets are sold, our fans are mostly old. But the beer will still be cold.”

• Taylor, hopeful BYU fan: “Big 12 here we come. We complained about getting disrespected in 2020 and 2021. Time to put our money where our mouths are! I think we’ll be fine in football, maybe a little over .500. But basketball …”

• Scott P., hopeless Cal fan: “Completely left behind in the upcoming realignment — devastating as a long-time fan. I expect that we will see outbound transfers and decommitments as players re-evaluate their options on where to spend the next four years. I will be at several games to show my support. Absolutely unacceptable that Cal should be relegated to a lower conference.”

• Mark Colone, hopeful Charlotte fan: “I am fired up to see what the ultra-confident Biff Poggi can do after bringing in 62 new players, including 28 who played for him previously at St. Frances Academy in Baltimore.”

• Joel H., hopeless Cincinnati fan: “The cupboard is bare at the absolute worst time. If Luke Fickell would have stayed just one more year, the sky would be the limit for this team. Instead, the best players and recruits all left right as we enter the promised land of the Power 4.”

• Scott McConnell, hopeful Clemson fan: “A new OC and QB will set the team free! Clemson and Dabo will be back in the CFP.”

• Dan, hopeless East Carolina fan: “The current era of college football has taken a toll on the mentality of the have-not fans. Need some sort of good news about the trajectory of my program, but it just feels like we’re blowing in the wind.”

• Dan T., hopeful Eastern Michigan fan: “God help me I think EMU can win the MAC this year.”

• Ben, hopeful FAU fan: “I’m hoping Tom Herman can rally the guys with some new energy. And I think the basketball team helped put us more on the map, so we need to roll that momentum into football as we transition to the AAC.”

• Brandon B., hopeless Florida fan: “I’m optimistic about the long-term prospects, but a schedule with five teams in the top 15 on it and an offense being led by a QB that has a lot of tape that isn’t all that impressive does not bode well for 2023.”

• Jake J., hopeful Florida State fan: “I’m worried we’re overhyped and the target is now on our backs. But our recruits and transfers make our experienced squad better than we’ve been since 2014, and everyone has bought into coach Mike Norvell.”

• Lance R., hopeful Illinois fan: “Feels like Illinois is doing everything at a competent level for the first time in my life.”

• Dwight Jellison, hopeless Indiana fan: “This team just ain’t good.”

• Lane Ffrench, hopeful Iowa fan: “It’s a win-win for Iowa: Cade McNamara leads Iowa to a Big Ten West title or (offensive coordinator) Brian Ferentz gets fired.”

• Brandon Franck, hopeless Iowa State fan: “Don’t gamble on your sport.”

• Michael, hopeful Iowa State fan: “Best coach, great venue and fans. Beat Iowa!”

• Daryl, hopeful Kansas State fan: “Old guys on the O-line and a good returning quarterback. Big 12 goes through the Little Apple!”

• Bruce Barker, hopeful Kentucky fan: “I never in my lifetime imagined that a seven-win season for Kentucky would be a disappointment like it was in 2022.”

• Alec N., hopeful Louisville fan: “Jeff Brohm is BACK and the city is buzzing with excitement. If they can mold this transfer class together with the roster, they really can surprise some people this year.”

• Chase, hopeful LSU fan: “I think Jayden Daniels has progressed significantly since last year and will pose a real threat with his arm this year. I also put $20 on Harold Perkins to win the Heisman.”

• Justin Fitzgerald, hopeless Maryland fan: “It’s Maryland football, so the season will follow the same cycle. Hot start in nonconference play before self-destructing in comical fashion against one of the top teams in the Big Ten East. Lather, rinse and repeat.”

• Carlos Horcasitas, hopeless Miami fan: “Mario Cristobal might be the answer, but at this point I’m used to failure.”

• Greg J., hopeful Michigan fan: “Natty or bust.”

• Neil, hopeful Michigan fan: “Michigan is primed after the last two years.”

• Don, hopeful Michigan fan: “On paper, best Michigan team of my lifetime.”

• Terry Weber, optimistic Minnesota fan: “Hey, they beat Wisconsin two years in a row. If only they can beat teams that start with ‘I’.”

• Travis Swenson, optimistic Mississippi State fan: “Zach Arnett is going to be a good head coach.”

• SJ, hopeless Missouri fan: “Is Mizzou going to Mizzou this year? I hope not, but I suspect so.”

• Ryan, hopeful NC State fan: “Brennan Armstrong and Robert Anae. Enough said.”

• Jason, hopeful Nebraska fan: “Inject the Rhule-Aid into my veins!”

• Ramon, hopeful North Carolina fan: “Two words: Drake Maye. They’re in every ballgame as long as he’s on the field.”

• Jack D., hopeless Northwestern fan: “We have had some issues since July.”

• Mike E., hopeful Notre Dame fan: “Sam. Motherlovin’. Hartman.”

• James O’Neill, hopeful Ohio State fan: “Fifty percent chance of beating Michigan. Other than that, zero losses.”

• Alan Kykendall, hopeful Oklahoma fan: “Brent Venables is changing the culture and the level of defensive talent in a hurry and I like it.”

• Napoleon, hopeful Oklahoma State fan: “Mike Gundy hasn’t had a losing season since his very first season in 2005. When they’ve had a down season. they typically pick it back up with the next year. With lots of transfers both in and out and Vegas thinking OSU only wins 6.5 games despite a very favorable schedule, I’m excited about the Cowboys getting to 8-9 wins like usual.”

• William, hopeful Ole Miss fan: “I feel like as long as we have Kiffin I will be optimistic every year.”

• Brandi Anderson, hopeless Oregon State fan: “The conference was effectively disbanded and we were left to starve in it.”

• Joe, hopeful Oregon State fan: “I’m optimistic for the upcoming season. It’s the following season that is causing concern.”

• Pat, hopeful Penn State fan: “Drew Allar is the prince who was promised.”

• Alex, hopeful Pitt fan: “The ACC is butt, but I am pretty hopeful that Pitt is an above-average butt of like eight wins.”

• Peter M., hopeful Purdue fan: “New coach Ryan Walters seems to have been doing about as much as possible on the recruiting and transfer front, and it seems like his energy has really resonated with new players and the existing roster. Initial results might not be as positive as last couple years given the roster turnover post-Brohm, but all indications are that there’s a strong leader as the new head of the program.”

• Neil, hopeless Rutgers fan: “We are simply never going to catch up to the level of some of the other Big Ten teams. Even as the program starts getting better recruits, it feels like being in that conference is a hopeless situation for football.”

• Chris N., hopeful SMU fan: “The new AAC is an absolute joke. We should fire everyone on the staff if we can’t run the table.”

• Brian K., hopeful South Carolina fan: “I am all aboard the Shane Train! Recruiting has been picking up since the Muschamp days and with Spencer Rattler coming back, I am hopeful they can pick up where they left off last season and surprise some people.”

• Jack Allen, hopeless Stanford fan: “Does a falling tree make a sound if nobody’s there to hear it?”

• Dan, hopeless Syracuse fan: “Been all downhill since Donovan McNabb left.”

• Austin W., hopeful TCU fan: “Almost impossible to match 2023, but it’s time to put ourselves at the front of the new Big 12.”

• Walter Jenkins, hopeful Texas fan: “All gas, no brakes.”

• Kevin, hopeful(?) Texas fan: “Ready to be hurt again!”

• Brian, hopeful Texas fan: “Every year I’m Fox Mulder when it comes to Texas football: I want to believe. This year I want to believe that Quinn Ewers will throw consistently catchable balls to a higher quality receiving corps, and that he’ll be protected by the best, healthiest line we’ve had in a decade. I want to believe what I’m reading about a better defense. I want to believe there’s a conference championship out there. But I also know that it’s possible that a chain-smoker will show up at my house in October to ask me how I could possibly be so naive, again.”

• Matthew, hopeful Texas A&M fan: “This much talent has to kick in sometime. Right? Right?!!?”

• Matt, hopeful Texas Tech fan: “Three words: Joey F—— McGuire.”

• Eric, hopeful UCF fan: “I’m mostly optimistic that they won’t embarrass themselves in the Big 12. Finish around 500 and win a few against existing Big 12 members and I’m happy.”

• Harvey, hopeful USC fan: “Impact transfers will make this a top-40 defense. Pair that with an offense that has a chance to be all-time great, USC should win the conference and have a chance to make the CFP.”

• Jeff M., hopeful Utah fan: “We’re looking for a three-peat. We want to put the hurt on USC and UCLA for destroying the conference, and we’ve got a lot of new Big 12 teams to pay attention to in preparation for next season.”

• Seth E., hopeful Vanderbilt fan: “We beat two SEC teams last year! We should be better this year! We’re not in the Pac-12! What more could you ask for?”

• Pat Kapus, hopeful Virginia Tech fan: “I feel Coach Pry has us on a path to return to relevance. I am hoping that they can surpass the pundits and get to a bowl game this year.”

How do the defending champions feel?

It’s obvious Georgia has a great chance to three-peat, which is why all but two of our 31 college football writer and editor voters placed the Bulldogs at No. 1 in our preseason staff poll.

• Adam, hopeful Georgia fan: “Just sim the whole thing. It’s already over.”

• Jeffrey, hopeful Georgia fan: “Easy schedule. Loaded team. Kirby Smart.”

• Ward E., hopeful Georgia fan: “The curse is dead, anything can happen. Why not a three-peat? I wouldn’t bet money on it, but it sounds less far-fetched to me than us winning a natty did before January 2022.”

• James P., hopeful Georgia fan: “It’s ridiculously fun to be a Georgia fan all of a sudden. Don’t get complacent and don’t get paranoid. Enjoy the experience, because it might not be like this for long.”

• Anders Olsen, sarcastic Georgia fan: “The only direction we can go is down. Even if we win our third national title in a row, if we don’t win by 58 points it will be considered a down year. Hopefully Kirby can use that as motivation while going for a four-peat :)”

Last year, The Athletic ranked Jimbo Fisher’s Texas A&M team seventh at the start of the season and it finished 5-7. This year, we’re still giving Fisher’s talented squad the benefit of the doubt with a spot in the Top 25.

Who ranked the Aggies as high as seventh? That would be my editor Mitch Light, who makes a few other bold predictions below.

Our preseason Top 25 in 2022 didn’t include national runner-up TCU and had seven-loss Oklahoma and Baylor ranked ninth and 10th, respectively. Seven-loss Michigan State and Miami? We had them ranked 15th and 16th. Penn State, which finished 11-2, was ranked 25th in the preseason.

So, we may not have shown a lot of foresight. But it’s a new season.

Bold predictions

And now to our scorching preseason takes:

• David Ubben, Chris Vannini and Stewart Mandel: Alabama will lose three games.
• Mitch Light: Someone other than Florida State or Clemson will win the ACC.
• Matt Brown: The winner of the Florida State-LSU game will make the Playoff — and the loser will finish unranked.
• Ari Wasserman: Texas will make the CFP.
• Grace Raynor: Texas will not be back. The Longhorns have as much hype as any program in the country entering the season, but we’ve been here too many times before to give them the benefit of the doubt again.
• Nicole Auerbach: The Pac-12 will not just break its CFP dry spell … it will come THIS CLOSE to sending two teams to the four-team field. The Pac-12 will end up with two teams in the top five in the final CFP rankings.
• Scott Dochterman, Chris Kamrani and Daniel Shirley: Michigan wins the national title.
• Pete Sampson: Michigan will win its first outright national championship since 1948 and Jim Harbaugh will return to the NFL.
• Mitch Sherman: Among the big programs set to move leagues in 2024 — Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington — not one will win a conference title this year.

Of the predictions that made print last year, the only one that hit was that of Austin Meek, who correctly predicted Kansas would make a bowl game.

USC didn’t make the Playoff. Georgia didn’t lose in Starkville. TreVeyon Henderson didn’t win the Heisman. NC State didn’t beat Clemson or finish in the top 10. Will Anderson didn’t become the second defensive player to win the Heisman. UCLA didn’t win the Pac-12. And a two-loss team did not make the Playoff.

But we got one right. Maybe this year, it will finally be Texas’ year, Ari.

(Illustrations: John Bradford / The Athletic; top photos: Megan Briggs, Gregory Shamus, John E. Moore III / Getty Images)